//
➢ take notes

Planning

2015 Collapse?

If you’re thinking this is going to be another “doomsday prediction about the end-of-the-world”, well…you’re not entirely off base, but I am going to show you data that might help you understand why I think an economic collapse will happen in the near future. Let me just point out that no one knows the future and no one can be certain if there will even be a collapse. The stock market may continue to grow and the dollar may get stronger and stronger with each day… but… if it doesn’t, and we do experience an even bigger “recession” than 2009, I want to be prepared for it.

I am basing most of this article on the past 40 years of recessions we have had in this country:

1966: Stock market collapse, Vietnam War, protests

1973: Oil embargo (Oct), Yom Kippur war, Stocks collapse, recession

1980: Inflation, Iran-Iraq war, Silver panic, Stocks crash, recession

1987: Black Monday (Oct.), largest single-day crash ever

1994: Bond collapse, DJIA bear market, war

2001: Stock market crash, 911 (Sept.), recession

2008: Stock market collapse 9/29 (Sept.), recession

2015: ???

Starting with 1966, we had the space race with the USSR and the US had just entered the Vietnam War the year prior. The economy was in a bull market, meaning stocks were up! The national debt was somewhat low and interest rates were 1- 2.5%. In the beginning of 1966, the FED started raising interest rates and after march of 1966, the Dow fell 22%.

After 1972 had 15% growth, 1973 (7 years after the last collapse) was expected to be another bull market but instead stocks fell 45%. The FED was funding the war and bigger government, which was easy money and as we know, easy money is dangerous money. In addition to this, oil prices went up some 200%. There are many other factors, including right up until 1971 the US dollar was backed by gold. Nixon canceled convertibility to gold unilaterally (by himself) which instituted the fiat money creation we have today. The FED can print all the money they need!

In 1980 (7 years later) inflation hit 13.5%. Interest rates went from 6% in 1978 to 10% in 1979 and stayed high until 1982. At times, they went as high as 20%! In 1980 the stock market dropped from 1000 to 759.

7 years later, in 1987…noticing a pattern here?… the stock market once again collapsed 22.6%. This was the largest one-day crash in history. This again should not surprise you that the years previous to 1987, the stock market was good and “no one saw it coming”.

1994 – This year is known as “The Great Bond Massacre”. The Fed raised interest rates from 6.2% to 7.75% and US bonds lost about $600 billion in value.

Again, in 2001 interest rates were raised by 3% and even though the market was already in a 7% decline as early as march of 2001, 9-11 happened and we saw another 7% decline. The Dot.com bubble did produce a spike in the market which in turn made for a worse decline but the correction was already going to happen.

2004 to 2007 the fed raised interest rates from 1% to 5% and oil prices peaked by June of 2008 and by the end of the year we saw another great recession.

Now, let’s look at the trends. So far the stock market has been at an all-time high and although oil prices just came down (a good thing), interest rates are at an all-time low and almost all the crashes happen in September and October. The FED cannot sustain this unless they start QE4 or raise interest. Both scenarios would potentially be a bad thing. I say “potentially” because this is uncharted territory and no one really knows if all the QE’s will work. Quantitative Easing (QE) is a theory and until we live through it, we won’t know if it’s up to the the task of repairing a broken economy. Many experts I listen to and read their published works would tell you that it is digging us into a much bigger hole then if we were to let the market naturally correct itself. Only time will tell if we see another crash in the market towards the end of this year. In my experience, when it’s supposed to rain, bring a raincoat.

If you have not read my previous article Why Bitcoin? yet, go read it now to learn how to protect your wealth.

 

Subscribe to Survive For Life.

I am the founder and author of Survive For Life. As a Former US Navy Seal I learned a ton of life saving information that will keep you alive and aware. I plan to share my knowledge with you here. I have a wife and a dog named Harper. Two of my favorite things to do are Rock Climbing and Snorkeling. Feel free to contact me for any reason.

Discussion

One Response to “2015 Collapse?”

  1. 7 years pattern… interesting.

    Posted by Natasha Bavin | March 29, 2015, 7:04 pm

Post a Comment

 FB Fan Page


Stay alive and Subscribe to our newsletter.


Error, no group ID set! Check your syntax!